Methods for Assessing Meteorological and Hydrological Risk in the Aspect of Changes in the Natural Environment

In the natural environment of humans there is a variability of phenomena that is accompanied by the risk of rare events. In mathematical modeling, these are the events that occur on the tails of the probability distributions of random variables associated with a given phenomenon. In this case, if we can determine the probability distributions, then indicating the risk is not very difficult and requires reading the quantiles of the probability distribution. However, the problem of determining the probability distribution is well known and widely described in the literature for a very long time. Nevertheless, it is still valid especially when properly estimating distribution quantiles.