Factor Analysis of Environmental Risk Amid Rising Energy Consumption


Vasiliy Nemov
Federal Research Center of Coal and Coal Chemistry of SB RAS, 650000, Kemerovo, Russia
Irina Filimonova
Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics ofSB RAS, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia
Anna Komarova
Novosibirsk State University, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia
Mikhail Mishenin
Novosibirsk State University, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia


In this study, the authors used methods of mathematical modeling, assessed the impact of various economic, technological, resource and demographic factors on the dynamics of environmental indicators. For the calculations, the IPAT model was used, which allows taking into account the impact of structural changes in the economy, modernization of production and environmental investments on environmental pollution indicators. The factors in the model are the population, gross domestic product, industrial production per capita, technological level, as well as the share of industry and agriculture in GDP, the share of exports and imports. The authors' study is based on an analysis of statistics on countries of the world presented at the World Bank. For research purposes, countries are divided into two groups - countries with developed (OECD) and developing economies (not OECD).

April 12, 2020